Results of carryover and interim allowance analyses for North Pacific gray whales
Andre E. Punt
International Whaling Commission
Projections to evaluate carryover provisions and the interim allowance approach for North Pacific gray whales are conducted. Five carryover options that should encompass any likely actual carryover situations are evaluated using the base-case trials, and all satisfy the Commission’s conservation objectives. Simulations for the ‘original’ phase out rule (a reduction in catch limit of 50% after 10 years without a survey estimate abundance) and the ‘interim allowance’ approach (the 50% reduction does not apply) suggest that ‘interim allowance’ can lead to better need satisfaction than ‘original’ with no increase in risk to the stocks of gray whales in the North Pacific. Thus, ‘interim allowance’ satisfies the Commission’s conservation objectives for the North Pacific gray whales.