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SC/69A/IST/04
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Resource ID
20025
Access
Open
Document Number
SC/69A/IST/04
Full Title
Update on gray whale status since 2020 implementation review
Author
Jonathan J. Scordino, John Bickham, John R. Brandon, Robert L. Brownell Jr., Alexander Burdin, Thomas Doniol-Valcroze, Tomoharu Eguchi, Geof H. Givens, Aimée R. Lang, Gen Nakamura, André E. Punt, Joshua Stewart, Jorge Urbán R., David W. Weller
Authors Summary
Paper SC/68D/IST/XX presents a review of new scientific findings on gray whales relevant for assessing whether or not the current state of nature is within the tested parameter space evaluated during the 2020 IR. The paper presents reviews on stock structure hypotheses, gray whale health and strandings, human removals by both hunting and non-hunting sources, abundance and calf counts, population growth rates, immigration into the PCFG, parameterization of the Makah hunt, and future catastrophic events (unusual mortality events - UMEs). For almost all factors, it appears that the current status of the gray whale population is within the parameter space evaluated during the 2020 IR. The exception is that it appears that UMEs are occurring more frequently and potentially at a greater magnitude than was previously evaluated. Preliminary modeling by Punt et al. (2023) suggest that the performance of the Gray Whale SLA and Makah Whaling Management Plan are likely robust to recent and future UMEs of NFG gray whales and reductions in productivity of PCFG, at least under the initial parameterizations taking into account in that exploratory modeling. In light of the current UME, and related overview on the status of ENP gray whales provided here, a plan is needed regarding what steps (if any) the IWC SC needs to take to be fully confident in the ASW management advice it provides for gray whales in advance of the 2024 Commission deliberations on renewing the gray whale catch limit quota.
Publisher
IWC
Publication Year
2025
Abstract
Paper SC/68D/IST/XX presents a review of new scientific findings on gray whales relevant for assessing whether or not the current state of nature is within the tested parameter space evaluated during the 2020 IR. The paper presents reviews on stock structure hypotheses, gray whale health and strandings, human removals by both hunting and non-hunting sources, abundance and calf counts, population growth rates, immigration into the PCFG, parameterization of the Makah hunt, and future catastrophic events (unusual mortality events - UMEs). For almost all factors, it appears that the current status of the gray whale population is within the parameter space evaluated during the 2020 IR. The exception is that it appears that UMEs are occurring more frequently and potentially at a greater magnitude than was previously evaluated. Preliminary modeling by Punt et al. (2023) suggest that the performance of the Gray Whale SLA and Makah Whaling Management Plan are likely robust to recent and future UMEs of NFG gray whales and reductions in productivity of PCFG, at least under the initial parameterizations taking into account in that exploratory modeling. In light of the current UME, and related overview on the status of ENP gray whales provided here, a plan is needed regarding what steps (if any) the IWC SC needs to take to be fully confident in the ASW management advice it provides for gray whales in advance of the 2024 Commission deliberations on renewing the gray whale catch limit quota.